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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.