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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."